China confirms US tariff suspension, Bitcoin nears ATH with huge green candle to $105k

May 12, 2025


Bitcoin opened the week with a strong hourly move, climbing 1.7% to reach $105,705 in early Monday trading.

The surge brought the asset to its highest level since January’s all-time high of $109,356, adding fresh momentum following a month of sideways movement.

The one-hour candle, printed between 07:00 and 08:00 UTC, carried Bitcoin from approximately $103,200 to just under $106,000, putting it within 4% of price discovery levels. However, it has retraced slightly to $104,700 as of press time.

The rally comes as the BBC is now reporting confirmation of progress in US-China trade negotiations, with Scott Bessent stating,

“After “robust” discussions, the US and China have agreed a 90-day pause on “reciprocal” tariffs, meaning both sides will reduce their tariffs by 115%.”

The move also coincided with a risk-on environment in broader markets. Spot gold fell 1.4% on the session, retreating to $3,278 per ounce as optimism surrounding US-China trade talks weighed on safe-haven demand.

Meanwhile, WTI crude futures climbed 1.5%, extending a multi-day rally. Bitcoin’s price action mirrored this macro rotation, tracking higher alongside oil and equities while decoupling from gold.

Bitcoin correlation with global assets (Source: TradingView)

This pattern has emerged during periods of reduced risk aversion, suggesting traders are reclassifying Bitcoin as a beta-macro asset rather than a defensive hedge.

Flows into Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds also remain a key driver. According to data compiled by Farside Investors, cumulative inflows across US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs crossed $41 billion, with $321 million of inflows on Friday.

The products are absorbing BTC at rates six times higher than the current mining issuance. These inflows reinforce upward price pressure, particularly during low-liquidity periods when order book depth is limited.

Technical indicators point to near-term resistance. The relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart sits at 73, in overbought territory, and previous moves above 105K have failed to hold. Price action around the $106,000 level could prove decisive, with bids stacked slightly below and limit sells beginning to populate overhead.

The broader context reflects the improved macro sentiment. The BBC reported that China has now confirmed “suspension of tariff countermeasures,” helping calm investor concerns over tariffs and global demand.

As a result, the US dollar has traded relatively flat, with yields hovering near recent lows. This environment supports risk assets and has historically favored crypto price appreciation.

The move also follows Bitcoin’s rebound above $100,000 last week, when renewed inflows and improving sentiment erased April’s tariff-driven drawdown. Traders are now watching for sustained momentum as the asset approaches previous highs. While the $105,000 level has psychological weight, it remains a technical midpoint between resistance at $106,400 and support near $102,400.

Monday’s activity places Bitcoin back near the upper boundary of its 2025 range. Whether flows and macro conditions can support a sustained move beyond the January high will likely depend on upcoming catalysts, including Tuesday’s US CPI report and Federal Reserve commentary. For now, Bitcoin’s return to $105,000 reaffirms its position at the forefront of risk appetite in global markets.

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