TLDR
- SOL faces bearish divergence on weekly chart, testing key support at $117
- Market experts outline two scenarios: continued decline or bounce to new all-time highs
- Support zones identified at $120-$130 and $105, with resistance at $135-$145
- ETF approval speculation reaches 90%, potentially driving price toward $180-$200
- Real-world asset (RWA) market adoption could provide long-term growth catalyst
Solana, which reached an all-time high of $295 nearly three months ago, is now experiencing price volatility as a bearish divergence appears on its weekly chart. This technical pattern suggests momentum may be weakening despite recent recovery attempts.
Market expert and trader Mags has identified this bearish divergence as SOL tests important horizontal support levels that have held for the past year.
#Solana – Unbiased Analysis
Solana hit a new all-time high of $295 this cycle but failed to hold above it.
A massive bearish divergence is in play on the weekly chart, and the price is now testing a key horizontal support that has held strong for the past year.
The 1.618… pic.twitter.com/X1QCVaF0Kn
— Mags (@thescalpingpro) March 31, 2025
The cryptocurrency has formed key support at the Fibonacci level of 1.618 at $117, marking a zone that must hold to prevent further decline.
Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved to 40, a level that previously served as solid support for SOL.
Two potential scenarios could unfold from here, according to Mags.
The first scenario involves a temporary bounce that eventually wears out, leading to a breakdown of both horizontal support and the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
Alternatively, a strong bounce from current levels could lead to continuation toward new all-time highs, supported by the RSI indicator which still has room to move higher.
The SOL/BTC pair is also testing the 0.618 Fibonacci support level after being rejected from a falling trendline, adding validity to these scenarios.
ETF Speculation Drives Optimism
Despite the technical concerns, bullish catalysts are building momentum for Solana.
Prediction markets now price a 90% chance of Solana ETF approval, according to crypto analyst Crypto Rand.
If approved, this could mark a turning point for SOL by unlocking substantial institutional investment and driving a new wave of adoption.
Analysts suggest that if demand surges similar to Bitcoin’s ETF experience, SOL could climb to $180-$200, potentially breaking past previous all-time highs.
A key trendline that has historically triggered rallies of approximately 30% is again in play, according to analyst Coinvo.
This $SOL re-test could mark the bottom before the rally! 👀 pic.twitter.com/ISq0XnuAPq
— Coinvo (@ByCoinvo) March 30, 2025
Political factors may also influence SOL’s trajectory, with some speculation about inclusion of US-based cryptocurrencies in strategic reserves.
The RWA Opportunity
The tokenized real-world asset (RWA) market represents another growth avenue for Solana.
With this market potentially valued at $240 billion, competition is fierce among blockchains to capture market share.
Analyst SolanaNews.sol believes the RWA market could migrate to the Solana chain due to its fast transactions, low fees, and scalability.
🚨BREAKING: TOKENIZED RWA ASSETS RECENTLY HIT $240,000,000,000!!!🚨
– Most of these will migrate to Solana pic.twitter.com/pp2iY6y56x
— SolanaNews.sol (@solananew) March 29, 2025
These features make Solana an ideal network for tokenizing assets like private credit, treasury bonds, and real estate on a large scale.
Institutional players exploring blockchain solutions could position Solana at the forefront of the RWA revolution if adoption accelerates.
Critical Price Levels to Watch
Solana is approaching a crucial turning point in the $109-$114 range, according to analyst ElliotXSolana.
The recent correction has brought SOL’s price into the 61.8%-88.7% Fibonacci retracement zone, historically a level where buyers step in.
If SOL holds this zone, a short-term relief rally could push prices toward $135-$145.
However, failure at this support could confirm a steeper bearish trend, with $105 or lower as the next target.
Crypto analyst Rose Premium Signals suggests an ideal accumulation zone between $120 and $130, with secondary support at $105.
🔍 Technical Analysis for $SOL/USDT — Weekly Timeframe#SOL is holding a major structural support level after a strong correction. If momentum builds and the price breaks out, we can expect an impulsive move toward the upper targets.
Ideal accumulation zone: $120 – $130
— Rose Premium Signals 🌹 (@VipRoseTr) March 31, 2025
The same analyst projects potential targets of $297, $338, and $385 if momentum builds and price breaks out from current levels.
The next 24-48 hours will be pivotal for determining SOL’s price trajectory, with a breakdown below $105 potentially confirming bearish control.
Conversely, a strong bounce from current support zones could signal a momentum shift and set the stage for recovery.